‘All indications’ that ANC is doing worse


Although only about 14% of all voting districts in the 2024 general election’s votes have been counted, it is clear that the ANC has indeed performed worse and will probably not achieve 50% support nationwide.

That’s how prof. André Duvenhage, independent political analyst, told RNews at the Gallagher conference center in Midrand on Thursday.

He believes that anyone who is still in denial about this reality is the ANC itself which is still convinced that it will get a majority vote in the country.

About 1,329,932 had been counted by around 10:45am on Thursday.

National support for the ANC at this stage stands at 566,249 votes, followed by the DA with 343,394 and the EFF with 112,643 votes.

“When I look at the figures, it becomes increasingly clear that the absolute majority for the ANC is getting smaller.

“I think the ANC finds itself in this position for several reasons, including poor leadership from Pres. Cyril Ramaphosa and then a relatively weak election campaign compared to previous years.

“Then there is also ‘internal competition’ from the uMkhonto weSizwe party (MKP). It’s ANC people who now vote differently,” says Duvenhage. This is especially true in KwaZulu-Natal – a province that the ANC will certainly lose.

Werner Horn, DA Member of Parliament, says that at this stage it does look like the MKP will do as well in this province as the polls predicted and will be the largest party here.

He does think that the party’s percentage of support may decrease slightly, as eThekwini (Durban) votes have not yet been counted and the MKP does not enjoy that much support there.

Duvenhage says a coalition can probably govern in this province, from which the ANC may be excluded. A smaller party like the IVP could be a preferred coalition partner for the MKP.

However, the picture in Gauteng can look very different.

In this province, according to polls, the ANC will probably achieve 40%.

Duvenhage says this party will therefore have to find a strategic coalition partner, which at this stage looks like the EFF. He believes that the IVP is too small to pull the cart through the drift in this case.

After all, the EFF is the prodigal son of the ANC, says Duvenhage.

Either way, says Horn, Gauteng will probably be a hotly contested province, as was predicted earlier.

DA may get 25%, Action SA fares worse

As far as the DA is concerned, it seems that this party may achieve between 20% and just above 25%.

“But what is also clear to me is that the PA is doing very well. In contrast, there is the DA’s other opponent, Action SA, which is definitely underperforming at this stage.

“I think the reason for that is that Action SA worked much more concentrated in the previous election, and now they are trying to compete across nine provinces and nationally. They just don’t have the capacity.”

Horn says that it does look like the DA will “gain the majority again in the Western Cape despite major challenges”.

Wouter Wessels, the FF Plus’ national spokesperson, says that although it is still too early to be able to make a precise judgement, it would appear that the FF Plus’ support has grown since the previous election.

“At some of the voting points we have already done better than previous years. It is indeed difficult to say with only 11% of the votes already counted, and it depends on which polling stations’ results become available first.”